EuroFinance International Treasury Management day 2: Treasury turn to technology to tackle volatility and boost visibility
Yesterday concluded with a celebratory tone, as the winners of the EuroFinance Treasury Excellence Awards were recognised. The lively atmosphere, vibrant discussions and networking seamlessly carried over into day two’s sessions.
Day two began with a session on the Economic outlook: market impacts of low growth, high debt economies, with Marco Buti, former director-general for economic and financial affairs at the European Commission, and Filiz Unsal, Deputy director, policy and research branch, economics department of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), moderated by Christian Odendahl.
A central theme of the conversation was the productivity growth within the European Union over the past quarter-century. The manufacturing sector has seen some positive developments, with productivity improvements that have brought it closer to US levels. This is, however, a bittersweet observation: Europe’s failure to catch up with the US in key areas of innovation and productivity has persisted even after the global financial crisis and worsened following the COVID-19 pandemic.
A key concern is the persistently low level of investment across the continent. Despite significant fiscal stimulus during the pandemic, net business investment in the EU remains low. This stagnant investment climate is a troubling signal for Europe’s long-term growth prospects.
However, there are areas of cautious optimism. While total investment remains subdued, there are sectors where Europe is making strides. R&D investment in the EU is now on par with that of the United States, and investment in digital infrastructure and software, has outpaced that in more traditional, tangible assets such as real estate. This suggests that while Europe’s overall investment picture remains bleak, its technological sector holds some promise for future growth—particularly if the digital transformation can be leveraged more effectively.
The adoption of new technologies, especially AI, could provide the spark needed to address the EU’s productivity challenges. The barriers posed by Europe’s fragmented market structure, and the need for large fixed investments in emerging technologies, exacerbate the difficulties faced by European firms. Digital and AI investments require significant upfront capital, which often depends on intangible assets for collateral. This creates an additional hurdle for firms looking to secure funding, especially given the underdeveloped nature of Europe’s venture capital and capital markets. These structural weaknesses are further magnified by the shift towards more technology-driven sectors.
Following the pandemic, public debt levels have surged, driven by emergency spending and EU-wide fiscal measures such as the Next Generation EU programme. While inflation has helped ease some of the pressure on public debt, the long-term outlook remains fraught with uncertainty.
Also read: From tariffs to rate cuts: eurozone’s challenges and opportunities in 2025
During the recent monetary policy statement in September, the press release stated that: “Survey indicators suggest that both manufacturing and services continue to grow, signalling some positive underlying momentum in the economy.”
The statement added, higher tariffs, a stronger euro and increased global competition are expected to hold growth back for the rest of the year. “However, the effect of these headwinds on growth should fade next year. While recent trade agreements have reduced uncertainty somewhat, the overall impact of the change in the global policy environment will only become clear over time.”
In a live poll conducted during the conference, the top macroeconomic challenge concerning treasury professionals was identified as government regulations.
In a time marked by shifting economic policies and rising geopolitical tensions, it’s clear that regulatory uncertainty remains a major concern for many in the treasury and finance community.
AI as a catalyst for trade and economic transformation
The session AI: the global gamechanger?, with Emmanuelle Ganne, Chief of digital trade and frontier technologies at the World Trade Organization, and Inma Martinez, Technology pioneer and AI advisor to government and public sector, focused on how Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming the global economy, with particularly strong implications for international trade. Recent estimates suggest that AI could reduce trade-related costs for firms and witness a significant increase compared to earlier projections, reflecting the pace of technological advancement and broader adoption.
AI is also expected to contribute to a global GDP, driven by productivity gains and more efficient global supply chains.
AI is also pushing the boundaries in sectors like energy, where machine learning is being used to control the complex systems involved in nuclear fusion. At a geopolitical level, AI leadership is becoming increasingly strategic. Despite restrictions on advanced semiconductors, countries like China have accelerated innovation by developing new model architectures and reducing dependency on high-end chips.
Also read: AI’s bright spot for trade amid global tensions
The recent World Trade 2025 report added, “trade and trade-related policies are critical for AI to contribute to inclusive growth. The development and deployment of AI depend not only on domestic capabilities, but also on access to global markets, data and technologies.”
International cooperation is required to limit the harm of fragmented approaches to AI policies and to foster a global policy environment that supports inclusive and sustainable AI-driven growth through trade, the report noted.
Treasury talks
The on-ground conversations were also very engaging, particularly around FX volatility and liquidity management, and how best to navigate these challenges. One key takeaway was the importance of having a solid hedging strategy.
Importantly, hedging should not be treated as a tool only for a “rainy day”; rather, it should be an ongoing, actively maintained part of treasury operations.
During the live poll, attendees were asked: “Which area do you consider the top priority in liquidity management for your treasury function over the next year?”
The results showed that 40% of respondents selected real-time visibility of cash and liquidity as their top priority, followed by more accurate forecasting and analytics, chosen by 34%.
According to conversations on the ground, led by Paul Nicholson, Senior conference producer at EuroFinance, much of the discussion focused on how to achieve structured treasury operations. A key theme was how treasurers are increasingly leveraging data and technology to move away from long, manual spreadsheets in order to build more streamlined and efficient treasury processes.
Day 2 full of informative discussions and insights. Tomorrow, we look forward to the case study session from UNHCR and the inspiring “Superhumans” session by Thomas Schulz, Reporter at Der SPIEGEL. See the day 3 agenda.